July 22, 2010
O’Neill needs to do all of the three following things: he must prove my paleontological & geological evidence is wrong; he must show that his “proof” does not lead to bizarre consequences; he must show that Li/Lt is “undefined” (as he claimed in his proof) as opposed to “indeterminate.”
The burden of proof is on Kevin O’Neill. He cannot support that burden. He loses the wager.
July 18, 2010
I told Mr. O’Neill that I would post his proof on this blog. The following is a text preface and the proof he submitted in the form of a jpeg image …
July 15, 2010
A frequent commenter on this blog has challenged me to a wager. In a comment on one of my previous posts Kevin O’Neill writes…
” North Pole has never been ice-free; not once in the history of the earth.
… and I can prove it. I’ll wager you $100 to be given to the other’s favorite charity. I suggest we use NSIDC’s 15% as the threshold for ice-free. Do you accept?”
July 3, 2010
Veli Albert Kallio, described by the UK Independent as a “leading ice expert”, has informed me (see his comment here) that at the current melt rate all Arctic sea ice “would melt away by 8th August.” Even if the melt rate slows down before August 8th the danger still persists. Kaillo points out that “there is still another 5 weeks that allow melting” after August 8th, and “ice in the Arctic Ocean could be all melted before the new winter freezes set in.”
June 22, 2010
Singer recently showed up in the online pages of the New York Times (naturally) opinion section asking “How good does life have to be, to make it reasonable to bring a child into the world?”
He introduces us to the philosophical pedigree, starting with Arthur Schopenhauer in the 19th century and leading up to today’s South African philosopher David Benatar, that argues a good life is of no benefit the person that lives it, but a bad life causes suffering for the person that lives it. (This line of reasoning is technically known as “vita combibo , tunc vos intereo.” Look it up.)
June 11, 2010
In various posts I have used Vermeer’s and Rahmsorf’s (VR2009 for rest of this post) model that relates sea level rise rate to global temperature to see how different temperature scenarios would result in sea level rise rates, according to VR2009. In my previous post I inverted their model to calculate the temperature from satellite sea level data. Here are the details of that inversion…
May 27th, 2010
The graph of temperature vs. time, below, shows the result of this process. It shows the GISS 5-year mean temperature, the GISS monthly land+ocean temperature (which covers 1996 to present), and the 7-month running average of the GISS monthly land+ocean temperature. Contrasted to these three versions of the GISS temperature data is the temperature that the VR2009 model (equation 1, above) would require to yield a sea level that looks like the actual satellite measured sea level (from 1996 to present).
“Impact of Artificial Reservoir Water Impoundment on Global Sea Level” by Chao, et. al.: Useful but flawed
May 9th, 2010
B. F. Chao, et. al., made a useful but flawed contribution to the question of sea level rise with their Science article “Impact of Artificial Reservoir Water Impoundment on Global Sea Level.” The gist of their paper was that all the water captured by man-made reservoirs is water that would otherwise be contributing to higher sea levels. This is an important point, they say, when considering global warming induced sea level rise.
April 24th, 2010
Back on March 21st I made a comment at Realclimate about the first of my series of posts concerning Vermeer’s and Rahmstorf’s 2009 attempt (referred to as VR2009 for the rest of this post) at predicting sea level rise for the 21st century. Not surprisingly, they did not allow the comment to go beyond the “moderation” phase. That’s OK I suppose – it’s their blog. But it has come to my attention that there have been several comments by “EFS_Junior” and Phillip Machanick about my series over at Realclimate to which I should respond. And since RealClimate likes to delete my comments, I will respond here for the record.
April 24th, 2010
Church’s and White’s effort at extracting a global sea level from multiple records was a useful endeavor, and I have no reason to argue with it (so far), but trying to extrapolate a fit to that data a century into the future is mathematically very hazardous.
April 14th, 2010
As before, these bizarre results are not my invention – they follow directly from Vermeer’s and Rahmstorf’s equation relating sea level rise rate to temperature. The answer to the question is very simple: Vermeer’s and Rahmstorf’s model does not make sense. Their model causes realistic temperature scenarios to yield unrealistic sea level rise rates.
April 12th, 2010
So, in both universes, water was penetrating underneath the ice shelves. Drop for drop, molecule for molecule, the water penetration was identical. The condition of the ice shelves in the two universes were identical at the moment of bifurcation. In the universe where the temperature continues to rise the ice shelves do not collapse, as evidenced by the fact that the sea level rise rate does not increase. This is despite the fact that the increasing warmth would cause even more water to “penetrate underneath shelves.” But in the universe where the temperature becomes constant, the ice shelf immediately starts to collapse, increasing the sea level rise rate. OK, sure.
April 3rd, 2010
VR2009′s equation yields realistic looking sea level rise rates when historical 20th century temperatures are used. But that is not because the equation explains the relationship between temperature and sea level. It simply describes the relationship during the 20th century. If their equation explains the relationship between temperature and sea level, then it must yield a reasonable sea level rise rate when a reasonable temperature is used. Clearly, it fails this test.
March 27st, 2010
It seems to me that the only hope for advocates of VR2009′s model at this point is to say something like this:
“Sure, Moriarty’s math may be correct, but Vermeer and Rahmstorf’s model can only be expected to be valid for reasonable, realistic temperature increases. Moriarty’s temperature scenario (equation 3) is not reasonable or realistic.”
I would beg to differ with such a statement.
March 21st, 2010
This is not a trick of math. VR2009 claim that their model (equation 2) should work with any temperature increase scenario. In fact, they applied their model to 342 future temperature scenarios derived from “six emission scenarios, three carbon cycle feedback scenarios, and 19 climate models.” But my hypothetical temperature increase scenario shows that their model describes sea level change in the 20th century, but does not explain it – despite their vague just-so story about time lags due to water penetrating under ice shelves, blah blah blah. Consequently, it does not have predictive power for the 21st century.
February 15th, 2010
Is it possible that tree-rings are better proxies for atmospheric CO2 than for temperature? As a simple test, I selected all the tree-ring proxies used for Mann’s 2008 version of the hockey stick and did a simple correlation to the Northern Hemisphere instrumental temperature record and to the atmospheric CO2 record.
February 3rd, 2010
This post is about a little subplot in gathering of time series for the Michael Mann’s 2008 version of the hockey stick (Proxy based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millenia, PNAS, 2008)
I have been reading over the blog posts of Steve McIntryre and Jeff Id and others about the nuances of various constructions of the hockey stick. I’ve been examining the archived Mann08 data at the NCDC. This is my attempt to boil down hockey stick construction to its bare-bones, expressed as five essential steps.
January 21, 2010
I believe that data used temperature reconstructions, which are in turn used to push for re-structuring the economy of the world, should be easily accessible to everybody.
You can view the plots of all 1,209 proxies used by Michael Mann for his 2008 hockey stick temperature reconstruction joined together into one giant image.
January 9, 2010
Wikipedia has some fundamental problems. Ironically, these problems stem from what are touted as it’s greatest features.
January 3, 2010
Mr. President, why not deal with global warming with a nice interfaith prayer summit?…It’ll have the same effect on global warming as walloping everybody who uses carbon-based energy with a huge tax.
December 31, 2009
I downloaded the large version of Mohib Ebrahim’s very nicely made climategate timeline from Jo Nova’s blog. The local FedEx Kinko’s copy store printed out the 8 foot by 3 foot work of art in black and white for a mere $17. This poster is now hanging on the wall of my office cubicle at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
December 20, 2009
What did he do that was worse than attempting to re-write the history of the planet in a way to affect decisions about the economy of the world? I’d really like to hear the details of that one.
December 13, 2009
This may be beating a dead horse, but I thought it would be fun to examine the question of data centering, or mean subtraction, for principal component analysis (PCA). So, I created a program that does a side by side comparison of PCA on simple noise with proper averaging and with Michael Mann styled improper averaging.
This was motivated by Steve McIntyre’s observation…
“We [Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick] also observed that they[Michael E. Mann, Raymond S. Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes] had modified the principal components calculation so that it intentionally or unintentionally mined for hockey stick shaped series. It was so powerful in this respect that I could even produce a HS from random red noise.”
November 24, 2009
Trenberth and the rest of the gang are willing to sacrifice the tenets of scientific discourse and even common decency , and they are eager to evade the need for transparency, just to maintain their status as the scientific elite. They have selected and presented data in a way that makes the epithet “alarmist” an objective evaluation of their behavior.
Comparing the Interstate Highway System to Scientific American’s “A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030?
November 14, 2009
Jacobson and Delucchi claim that the expense of their energy system “is not money handed out by governments or consumers. It is an investment that is paid back through the sale of electricity and energy.” This is a soothing argument that overlooks an obvious fact: We already have a power energy system that pays for itself “through the sale of electricity and energy.”
November 13, 2009
We have started using the word “trillion” when talking about government expenditures. Soon we may become numb to that word, as we have already become numb to “million” and “billion.” My estimate for the cost of Jacobson’s and Delucchi’s system comes out to about $210 trillion. So how much is $210 trillion dollars?
October 31, 2009
Remember the old adage “A little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing?” The middle column shows that those who know a little bit about tap-and-trade are the most likely to support it.
October 23, 2009
0.61 hectares to feed the soulless Toyota Land Cruiser.
0.062 hectares to feed your best friend.
That’s 10 times as much for the Land Cruiser than for me. I could have sworn the professors said the dog required twice as much land as the Land Cruiser. They were only off by a factor of 20.
Bad professors, BAD. Don’t make me rub your nose in it.
October 20, 2009
CO2, temperature, sea level rise rate, accumulated cyclone energy
October 19, 2009
I have noticed a surprising (to me) correlation between the global average sea level and the global temperature. It appears to me that the sea level rise rate leads the temperature. The following plot shows sea level rise rate from the Jason and TOPEX satellites (from the University of Colorado web site) and the global temperature (from UAH) with a 1.1 year offset added to the temperature data to align it with the sea level rise data.
October 2, 2009
If you do not understand the treacherous environmental precipice upon which we are poised, let the unalloyed data speak for itself. Brace yourself – five of the six years with the greatest Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent have occurred in just the last decade! If this historically unprecedented* trend continues, we are doomed.
September 26, 2009
The modern version of the weekly reader, TIME for Kids, published by the same folks who bring you TIME magazine, heralded the news of the very first ships to sail the legendary “Northeast Passage” in an article titled ”An Arctic Passage.” This route links Europe to the Pacific Ocean, while avoiding the much longer route through the Suez canal and Indian Ocean. But the reality is that this route was travelled on a regular basis by the Russians from the 1930s to the 1990s. Read on to see how bogus this propaganda, that was spoon fed to your children, really was.
September 24, 2009
Let’s face it – this ambitious goal of 144 billion liters of ethanol per year from biofuels is a very bad idea. Our most precious resources are the land, water and resources for making fertilizer (which is primarily natural gas for nitrogen fertilizers). The dumbest thing we can do is deplete our soil and aquifers, pollute our water with extra nitrogen fertilizer, and waste our natural gas to make ethanol. If you think living with a shortage of gasoline is rough, try living with a shortage of food.
September 9, 2009
So, the DMI data, presented in the crude fashion that I have used, lends support to the idea that the Arctic has been heating more rapidly since the mid-1990s than before. Those of you who have read my blog in the past know where I stand on the probability of the Arctic ice melting in the near future, and I stand by my previous posts. But I think this data must be presented as part of the scientific pursuit of truth.
September 8, 2009
I am providing the DMI arctic temperature data in numerical format as a public service. This data is available in graphical format at the DMI Centre for Ocean and Ice, but I could not figure out a simple way to get the numerical data that was used to make the graphs. So I have extracted it from the graphs myself.
August 22, 2009
That’s right. I will put $2000 dollars against Professor Barber’s $1000. It should be difficult for him to turn this down. He can put that $2000 dollars to any good cause that he desires. If this sum is too small, perhaps we can nogotiate something larger. He knows how to find me. But I haven’t had a response yet.
August 20, 2009
If we really concerned about reducing CO2 (I’m not), saving energy (I am), creating American jobs (I am), and saving money (I am), then we should support the production of an American car that is similar to a 1988 Honda Civic. Why argue the merits of a $40,000 car that few people will ever be able to afford? A $15000 dollar car that gets as good or better mileage and generates as little or less CO2 would be bought by millions and have a much greater impact.
August 18, 2009
OK, so maybe the Chevy Volt doesn’t really get 230 miles per gallon. Are such exaggerations justified because they serve a greater cause? The Chevy Volt will help save the world, after all, by reducing Co2 emissions, right?
August 15, 2009
Fifty miles per gallon is still pretty good you might say. But $40,000 is a lot to pay to be squeezed like a sardine. Consider this: a 1987 Honda Civic Coupe HF got 57 miles to the gallon. It cost about $7500 dollars (about $16,000 in 2009 dollars). And, you didn’t have to spend $15,000 to replace the battery every 150,000 miles in the old Honda.
August 13, 2009
I have avoided the urge to let ClimateSanity drift into non-climate related topics. The only way that I could satisfy that urge and maintain the integrity of ClimateSanity at the same time was to create another blog, where non-climate related issues will be addressed.
August 8, 2009
Notice that from about 12,000 years ago until about 8,000 years ago the sea rose about 120 meters. So, the sea level rose an average of 3 meters per century for 40 straight centuries in the recent (geologically speaking) past! But the Salmon somehow survived.
July 23, 2009
Any serious discussion of the effect of sea level rise in Vancouver Island or the British Columbia sea coast would have to include the data I have shown above. So why isn’t this data even mentioned in the Times Colonist article? You would think a journalist who is seeking the truth, wherever it may lead, would manage to find this data.
July 20, 2009
I believe that Rahmstorf deliberately presented his data in a way calculated to deceive. These are harsh words, and I say them with regret.
July 18, 2009
My endorsement of CFLs, despite some of their drawbacks, is most definitely not support for the government mandate to force us to use CFLs. I am stockpiling incandescents for certain situations and would suggest that others do the same.?
July 8, 2009
Those supporting a government ban on incandescent lights do so with an almost religious zealotry. They tout the advantages of CFL and downplay the disadvantages. If they are so zealous and willing to go to such lengths for something as simple as taking away people’s choice of light bulb, how far will they go for more weightier issues?
July 6, 2009
I CHOOSE to use CFLs. I have strong objections to the federal government DICTATING that these lights be used. My guess is the CFLs would totally sweep the light bulb market on their own if the lifetime issue, and other nuisance issues were resolved. But when we are forced to buy CLFs there will little motivation for the CFL manufacturers to resolve these problems.
June 16, 2009
When Al Gore ominously implies that that the Greenland Ice Sheet [GIS] is going to melt down and dump enough fresh water into the Atlantic Ocean to shut down the Thermohaline Circulation, remember the works of Clarke, et.al., in the above letter: “we urge caution in drawing comparisons of the abrupt change 8400 years ago to future scenarios involving, for example, the melting of the GIS [Greenland Ice Sheet] and its relevance to human societies.” more…
June 5, 2009
Why would the second scenario illustrate man’s ability to cope with the ocean, but the first does not? In both cases they have the same problem and the same outcome. Here’s why: in the first scenario the engineers’ and brahmins’ motivations are impure, in the second scenario the engineers’ and brahmins’ motivations are pure. more…
June 4, 2009
If Greenland actually started melting, by some extraordinary circumstance, 300 times faster, then it would yield 1 Sverdrup, or 1,000,000 cubic meters, of fresh water every second. What would happen after 100 years of melting at that rate? Well, that’s a trick question… more…
May 27, 2009
It looks like you will have to live with the disappointing news that the planet is not doomed by rapid sea level rise after all. And your approval for grand plans to save places like Boston and San Francisco may not be needed. Don’t lose hope though, with any luck the planet will be threatened by a giant meteor and the services of your brilliant mind will be needed after all. more…
May 17, 2009
Suppose you felt the need to build a sea wall three meters high and three meters thick to protect the Boston area from the rising sea….the volume of the sea wall will be 900,000 cubic meters, or about 1,000,000 cubic meters…the volume of seawall that needs to be built per person per year is: 0.0025 cubic meters per person per year. Oh my, how will you every do it? more…
April 18, 2009
The animation below shows the main components of the dry atmosphere, with the increasing fraction of CO2. Each pixel represents 1 part per million (ppm). Two 50 year projections for CO2 levels are also shown, one with the Kyoto Protocol and one without… Just for fun, compare the increase in CO2 since the pre-industrial era in the above animation to the increasing fraction of land used for crops in the animation below… more…
April 7, 2009
The argument is made that rising levels of atmospheric CO2 will result in “climate change,” as opposed simple “global warming,” with greater extremes in temperature, precipitation, etc. Using this terminology any changing climate conditions can be attributed to anthropogenic CO2, right? Well, no. This argument only works if it can be shown that the range of weather extremes in the era of increasing CO2 is statistically greater than the range of weather extremes during at least several thousand years while CO2 held steady at about 280 ppm. What does the paleoclimatological record say about North Dakota climate for the last several thousand years? more…
March 29, 2009
Scientific American continues to embarrass itself with its online reporting of President Obama’s insights concerning flooding of the Red River in North Dakota. They report “President Obama says potentially historic flood levels in North Dakota are a clear example of why steps need to be taken to stop global warming….” and quote the President as saying in his usual articulate way:
“If you look at the flooding that’s going on right now in North Dakota and you say to yourself, ‘If you see an increase of two degrees, what does that do, in terms of the situation there?’” more…
March 24, 2009
Boston, you have been warned. Sea levels are rising , and if one of the IPCC’s five scenarios is correct, the world’s oceans will rise somewhere between 18 and 59 cm (7 to 23 inches) by 2100. If that isn’t terrifying enough for the people living on the New England coast, the Boston Globe now tells us that the ocean near Boston will rise 8 inches more than the world average. How will the hapless rubes of Boston cope with this onslaught of Atlantic water? more…
March 20th, 2009
This New York Times story tells us the tale of Rick Clark and the financial backing he is getting from the Palm Desert, California city government to pay for a home solar PV installation. Applying some back of the envelope calculations based on this NYT piece leaves me scratching my head…I would be willing to bet that Mr. Clark (with his house, guest house, dune buggy, two speed boats and $1400 monthly summer electric bill) and the other 100 borrowers live off incomes far above the average Palm Desert household income of $65,505. more…
March 14, 2009
This picture is my favorite. It was taken by my son on a school field trip to the Colorado state capitol. I have not blocked out the license plate because I do not think that senate district 28 State Senator Suzanne Williams should enjoy an expectation of privacy. I would think that a state senator who resides on the Transportation Legislative Regulatory Commission (TLRC), is the vice-chair of the state Transportation Committee, and who supports a president that wants to have government mandated higher fuel standards would find something other than a Lexus SUV to drive around town. more…
January 15, 2009
Discover magazine’s January “The Year In Science” issue contains an interview with Robert Proctor, a professor or history at Stanford University. The Author is Michael Abrams. Proctor’s new specialty is “agnotology,” a term he coined for “the study of the politics of ignorance.” This is all well and fine – he has a lot of raw material to work with since there is an abundance of ignorance to be studied in this world. more…
December 10, 2008
Now Barber has made the slightly longer term prediction that “The ice that has covered the Arctic basin for a million years will be gone in little more than six years.” I propose a friendly wager based on this prediction. I will bet David Barber $1000(US) that the ice covering the Arctic Basin will not be gone anytime before December 31st, 2015. The bet would involve no transfer of cash between myself or Barber, but rather, the loser will pay the sum to a charitable organization designated by the winner. more…
November 13, 2008
Here is a simple, fun, 10 question quiz that covers a sample of climate change and/or energy issues. Simply check the appropriate box and push the “vote” button for each question. After you have pushed the vote button you will see the accumulated wisdom of everybody who has answered that question so far. You can even leave a comment for any question, which I encourage. more…
October 16, 2008
What is happening with the Canadian Archipelago sea ice area? Like all Arctic regions, the sea ice area of the Canadian Archipelago expands in the winter and shrinks in the summer. Many people have come believe that the average yearly behavior of the ice from 1979 to 2000 represents what is “normal. The only special thing about these years is that they are the first 20 years over which satellite data on sea ice area was accumulated. more…
October 15, 2008
I have collected a short list of papers that indicate times during the mid-Holocene, and places in or near the Arctic, when it was warmer than the present. Some of these papers may also indicate warmer periods in the early or late Holocene, but I am concentrating primarily on the mid-Holocene in this post. Figure 1, below, shows the spatial distribution of areas covered by these papers. Click on the image to get a larger view. Figure 2 shows the times in the mid-Holocene that each paper says it was warmer than the present. more…
September 5, 2008
It’s been five months since the widely remarked upon paper, Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover, by Sloan and Wolfendale, was published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. In that short time this paper has been enshrined in the hall of fame of anthropogenic global warming dogma. The thing that makes this paper a favorite of the climate change alarmists is its purported proof that there is no possible significant relationship between galactic cosmic ray flux, as modulated by the sun’s magnetic field and climate change. This is important to the alarmists, because anything that might even partially exonerate CO2 must be stifled. more…
July 10, 2008
There have been some attempts to link the arctic sea ice loss of the last several years to reports of volcanoes under thousands of feet of water in the Gakkel Ridge. The truth is that all the energy from a volcano the size of Mount St. Helens could only melt 100 square kilometers of three meter thick ice. This is a trivial amount of ice for the arctic region, which typically oscillates between about 4 million and 14 million square kilometers every year. 100 square kilometers is only one hundred thousandth of the yearly change in Arctic sea ice extent. more…
July 4, 2008
I have heard frequently from people promoting farmer’s markets, local agriculural, and those opposed to large scale agribusiness, that food shipments are a significant energy drain and a major source of those pesky greenhouse gases. Therefore, the argument goes, we should all be eating locally grown food. Let’s put this argument to the test. more…
July 1, 2008
I am all for solar and wind energy. Really. Just click on the “ClimateSanity by Tom Moriarty” tab at the top of this page if you doubt me. But I believe the market, rather than demands by “activists” will ultimately lead to a better mix of renewables and non-renewables, with renewables gaining share as they become more cost effective. more…
May 15, 2008
My guess is that most of the alarmists are hoping and praying for a significant meltdown in the Arctic this summer. Without such a meltdown it won’t be polar bears that are endangered, but their credibility. more…
April 6, 2008
The climate change issue is more about politics than it is about science. It bothers me, but does not surprise me, that climate change alarmists want to indoctrinate my children as their political tools. more…
April 1, 2008
In general, it takes 360 km³ of water to raise the sea level by 1 mm. In order for the Antarctic peninsula to contribute 12 inches (about 300 mm) to the sea level in 100 years, it would have to drop 1,080 km³ of ice into the ocean (more really, because the density of the ice is less than the density of water) EVERY SINGLE YEAR FOR 100 YEARS!! If the ice at the grounding line (where the ice leaves the land) were 0.33 km thick on average, then more than 3000 km² of ice would have to move into the ocean every single year. more…