Posts Tagged ‘Hurricane’

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Some words about Hurricane Sandy

November 23, 2012

Ed Darrell has criticized ClimateSanity for not addressing the flooding in Manhattan from Hurricane Sandy.  So I will say a few words for Ed‘s benefit.

Ed is worked up by one of my previous posts, Manhattan Underwater, (part of my “Cities Underwater” series), which was critical of the picture on the cover of Heidi Cullen’s book “Weather of the Future.”  The picture showed Manhattan sometime in the future with the entire region between Lower Manhattan and Midtown Manhattan completely submerged.

I showed a map of water depths for various hurricane storm surges in Manhattan.  As it turns out, that map was proven to be accurate by Sandy.  Here is the map I showed.  By all accounts, the red region and part of the orange region on this map is the area that flooded during Sandy.


A storm surge of 13 feet in Manhattan is nothing to sneeze at.  It is an ugly situation anytime a hurricane hits a coastal urban area.  Always has been, always will be.   The real question, of course, is “Was this storm unprecedented?” (Alarmists love that word.)

Unprecedented?

Consider “The Great Gale of 1821,” which hit New York City on September 3rd of that year.  It’s storm surge was reported between 11.2 and 13 feet.  But, as reported in the September 4th, 1821 edition of the Evening Post, the tide was “at low water when the gale commenced.”  This contrasts with Hurricane Sandy, which unluckily hit the area when the tide was at its highest.  The tidal range at the Battery (southern tip of Manhattan) is about 5 feet.   If the Great Gale of 1821 had made landfall 6 hours before or after it did, then the surge would have been as much a five feet greater than Sandy’s.  It was just a matter of the luck of timing.

My father, who grew up in the Boston area reminded me of the “Great New England Hurricane of 1938“.  Blue Hill Observatory (“Home to the oldest continuous weather record in North America), about 10 miles south of Boston, reported winds up to 186 miles per hour.  Tide surges between New London and Cape Cod randged from 18 to 25 feet.  Downtown Providence, Rhode Island went 20 feet underwater in the  storm surge.  The Connecticut River in Harford went 19 feet above flood stage.

There are 25 or 30 major US cities along the Gulf Coast and the East Coast: Brownsville, Corpus Christi, Houston, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, Pensacola, Tampa, Fort Myers, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Orlando, Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, Norfolk, Washington DC, Dover, New York, Boston, etc.  Every few years one of these cities is going to be hit by a Hurricane.  The following two plots demonstrate the truth of this point.  The data are from the WeatherUnderground and shows the 30 deadliest hurricanes (measured in number of deaths) to make US landfall in the last 150 years.



One thing I notice when I look at these two above graphs is the paucity of deadly hurricanes over the last 30 years or so.  The occurence of an unusual random event does not make the probability of that event happening again any greater or lesser.

Other measures

Consider also the Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which was always high on the list of alarmist talking points until a few years ago.  They don’t seem to mention it much anymore for some reason.


Or the Power Dissipation Index…


Or the Hurricane Frequency…

More cold water thrown on the Sandy/Global Warming connection

The Frankenstorm in Climate Context

German Meteorological Expert Says: “No Evidence Showing Link Between Storms And Global Warming”

Frankenstorm

Hurricane Sandy-Extreme Events and Global Cooling

What Is Making Frankenstorm Sandy Exceptional?

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ClimateCentral and Michael D. Lemonick are afraid to really “connect the dots”

April 22, 2012

I posted a comment at ClimateCentral yesterday, but they are afraid to let you see it.  The particular article was ostensibly the work of Michael D. Lemonick, a veteran Time magazine science author.  His biographical blurb at ClimateCentral says that he has taught “science” at Princeton, Columbia and John Hopkins, but his degree is a Master of Science in Journalism.  So much for introductions.

Why do I say he is the “ostensible” author of the article at ClimateCentral?  Because the article is steeped with the “connect the dots” talking points

Lemonick tells us the public is “connecting the dots” about “extreme weather” and they finally “get it.”  He explicitly mentions that people are “connecting the dots” concerning tornadoes and hurricanes, with the majority believing they are getting worse due to “changing climate”.

Lest I be accused of violating ClimateCentral’s “comment guidelines”, here is a screenprint of my comment as it appeared when I submitted it.  I have blanked out my email address and location, and I have circled the URL of the ClimateCentral article where I submitted the comment.

Here is the text of my comment…

Perhaps the folks who “get it” might consider the following data…

From the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, number of strong to violent tornadoes as a function of time (1950 to present)

Or how about Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy…

If people are interested in “connecting the dots,” well here are a few more to connect…

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/21/mckibben-connects-the-weather-dots-on-sh-happens/

I guess I can understand ClimateCentral’s reticence about posting my comment: they wouldn’t want a few facts to foster any “doubt and confusion” about the end of the world.  Here is what the links in my comment showed…

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Twelve Years of Global Warming

October 20, 2009

Click on image to enlarge.

CO2-T-SLRR-ACE 1997-2009

 

1.  Atmospheric CO2 levels in parts per million (ppm).
Data is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/co2_data_mlo.html

 
2.  Global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE).
Data is from Florida State University
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/
Data has been smoothed with a one year FWHM Gaussian Filter.

 
3.  Sea Level Rise Rate (mm/year)
Original data is from the University of Colorado.
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/results.php
This graph is the time derivative of the original sea level data after it was smoothed with a one year FWHM Gaussian filter.

 
4.  Global temperature anomaly from satellites (°C).
Data from the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH).
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
Data has been smoothed with a one year FWHM Gaussian Filter.

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