A few days ago I wrote about the pollyannish belief that “China is slowing its carbon emissions.” An essential element of this ridiculous meme is that the Chinese are producing significant portions of their energy via wind and solar. Not true.
Consider just electricity. Here is a breakdown of China’s installed electricity capacity by fuel type in 2011 and their electricity generation by fuel type for 2000 to 2010 from the The United Stages’ Energy Information Administration’s evaluation of China’s energy consumption (2012)…
What do these charts tell you?
These two charts are drawn from the same data set and appear next to each other in the same document.
As you can see from the top chart, 6.2% of China’s installed electricity capacity is in wind or solar. That is over 60 gigawatts installed. Compare that the the US’s 60 gigawatts of installed wind and 10 gigawatts of installed solar.
Alas, the top chart shows installed capacity, not actual production. There is a little thing called the “capacity factor.” The capacity factor is the fraction of the time that particular power source can actually produce power at its rated capacity. For example, a one gigawatt capacity nuclear power plant will have a capacity factor of about 90%, meaning it can produce one gigawatt 90% of the time. Wind and solar capacity factors tend to be much lower, simply because sometimes the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine. The capacity factor for wind in China is 22%
The second chart shows the amount of electrical energy actually produced using the various “fuel types”. Do you see that very, very thin yellow band along the top of the second chart? That represents the Chinese electricity generation due to that 6.2% of installed wind and solar. Can’t see the yellow line? Let me blow up the last year of the chart for you…
That 6.2% of installed capacity in the form of wind and solar yields less than 1.5% of the actual energy.
China’s energy future
The Energy Information Administration document tells us…
China is the world’s second largest power generator behind the US, and net power generation was 3,965 Terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2010, up 15 percent from 2009. Nearly 80 percent of generation is from fossil fuel-fired sources, primarily coal. Both electricity generation and consumption have increased by over 50 percent since 2005, and EIA predicts total net generation will increase to 9,583 TWh by 2035, over 3 times the amount in 2010.
Wow! three times as much as 2010, a mere 21 years from now! Where will all this energy come from?
Again, the Energy Information Administration…
Total fossil fuels, primarily coal, currently make up nearly 79 percent of power generation and 71 percent of installed capacity. Coal and natural gas are expected to remain the dominant fuel in the power sector in the coming years. Oil-fired generation is expected to remain relatively flat in the next two decades. In 2010, China generated about 3,130 TWh from fossil fuel sources, up 11 percent annually.
Let me be clear, I am not knocking the use of wind and solar. I have been personally working on solar energy for 17 years. But I am knocking unrealistic expectations and quasi-religious environmentalist beliefs. And I am not criticizing the Chinese for their increasing energy consumption. They understand, correctly, that abundant energy is the key to prosperity.