Entire Arctic Ocean melted as early as August 8th, this year!July 3, 2010
This is a ClimateSanity Exclusive. I feel privileged to have scooped the folks at the New York Times and Realclimate.
Leading ice expert says entire Arctic Ocean sea ice may be gone sometime between August 8th and September of this year.
Veli Albert Kallio, described by the UK Independent as a “leading ice expert”, has informed me (see his comment here) that at the current melt rate all Arctic sea ice “would melt away by 8th August.” Even if the melt rate slows down before August 8th the danger still persists. Kaillo points out that “there is still another 5 weeks that allow melting” after August 8th, and “ice in the Arctic Ocean could be all melted before the new winter freezes set in.”
Kallio is not some crank, and needs to be taken seriously. Besides being a “leading ice expert”, he is a fellow of the Royal Geographical Society, an invited speaker for the Religion, Science and the Environment movement, an International Guru Nanak Peace Prize Nominee for 2008, and founder of the Frozen Isthmuses’ Protection Campaign of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans.
He has applied the same keen insight to the Arctic sea ice that he applies to his search for Atlantis.
Here are the numbers, as reported to me by Kallio:
“The Arctic Ocean sea ice has been declining since summer solstice at rate of 170,000 square kilometres per day. For example, over the last weekend Friday to Sunday 25-27 June the sea ice area decreased 516,000 square kilometres, which equals at 170,000 km2 per day. The highest daily melting was 25.6 at 208,000 km2 of which 112,000 km2 occurred above the normal 1979-2008 melting. At current rate of 170,000 km2 per day all the ice would melt away by 8th August.”
I was shocked and dismayed to hear this news. I immediately checked the AMSR-E data for arctic sea ice to confirm his results. I plotted the average Arctic sea ice extent for each day of the year covered by the AMSR-E data (2002 to present) and added one standard deviation, and overlaid the 2010 data. Then I overlaid a slope of -170,000 km2/day passing through June 25 and June 27th and extrapolated out to the future. And to my horror, it looks like Kallio is right!! See for yourself…