Bjorn Lomborg on German solar subsidiesFebruary 18, 2012
Bjorn Lomborg (The Skeptical Environmentalist and Cool It) has an interesting article (Goodnight Sunshine) describing the late realization in Germany that their massive investment in solar energy is “a massive money pit” and “a threat to the economy.” They have subsidized 1.1 million solar photovoltaic installations to the tune of $130 billion, which provide a whopping 0.3% of the nation’s energy.
If you are worried about anthropogenic CO2 induced global warming (a.k.a. climate change, a.k.a. climate disruption), he points out
“This sizeable investment does remarkably little to counter global warming. Even with unrealistically generous assumptions, the unimpressive net effect is that solar power reduces Germany’s CO2 emissions by roughly 8 million metric tons—or about 1 percent – for the next 20 years. To put it another way: By the end of the century, Germany’s $130 billion solar panel subsidies will have postponed temperature increases by 23 hours.”
And as to “green jobs” boosting the economy of Germany…
“[E]ach job created by green-energy policies costs an average of $175,000… And many ‘green jobs’ are being exported to China, meaning that Europeans subsidize Chinese jobs, with no CO2 reductions.”
I have one large quibble with his Lomborg’s numbers. He says
“Even with the inefficiency of current PV technology, we could meet the entire globe’s energy demand with solar panels by covering 250,000 square kilometers.”
It would really take closer to a million square kilometers.
Why a million square kilometers?
Because even good solar panels (say, rated for 150 Watts/m2) will yield much less than their name plate power for a variety of reasons.
1. A one square meter solar panel in a huge array actually requires a land area of at least 1/cos(latitude) meters. This is the land area shaded by the one meter panel by the sun at noon. It is larger at other times of day.
2. Extra area is required for infrastructure, such as service roads
3. The capacity factor for solar energy is about 20%. This means that if a solar panel’s name plate says that it is 150 watts, then on the average it will yield about 30 Watts because sometimes it is night, sometimes it is cloudy, and even during a sunny day the incident angle is optimal for only several hours before and after noon.
In Berlin, for example, where the latitude is 52 degrees, a one square meter panel in a huge array will require closer to 1.7 square meters of land. A typical good quality one square meter panel with a name plate wattage of 150 Watts at peak averages out to about 30 watts over the course of a year because of the 20% capacity factor. This translates to an average of about 18 Watts per square meter (30 Watts divided by 1.7 meters).
World energy consumption is about 5×1017 BTUs per year (about 1.5×1017 watt-hours/year). That is an average power consumption of about 1.7×1013 watts (1.5×1017 watt-hours/year divided by 8760 hours/year)
Therefore, it would take about a million square kilometers of solar arrays (1.7×1013 watts divided by 18 Watts per square meter).
This all assumes that the energy impoverished of the world are happy to stay that way. Oh well, we all have our crosses to bear.
You can see Lomborg’s complete article here.