10 to 1 odds for Prof. David Barber
August 27, 2014Background
Back in 2008 University of Manitoba Professor David Barber made two rediculous statements. First, National Geographic reported on June 20th, 2008, that Barber said
“We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history].”
Of course, that did not happen. At the low point for the year there were still 3 million square kilometers of ice in the Arctic and 2.25 million square kilometers in the Arctic Basin. But Barber wasn’t done sharing his insight. That year the Star Pheonix (Saskatoon) reported
The ice that has covered the Arctic basin for a million years will be gone in little more than six years because of global warming, a University of Manitoba geoscientist said. And David Barber said … he estimates the Arctic sea should see its first ice-free summer around 2015.
At the time I challenged Barber to…
…a friendly wager based on this prediction. I will bet David Barber $1000(US) that the ice covering the Arctic Basin will not be gone anytime before December 31st, 2015. The bet would involve no transfer of cash between myself or Barber, but rather, the loser will pay the sum to a charitable organization designated by the winner.
Definition of terms. The Arctic Basin is defined by the regional map at Cryosphere Today. “Gone” means the Arctic Basin sea ice area is less that 100,000 square kilometers, according to National Center for Environmental Prediction/NOAA as presented at Cryosphere Today . Charitable organizations will be agreed upon at the time the bet is initiated.
David Barber is a smart guy and evidently an expert in his field. Taking on a wager with an amateur like me should be like shooting fish in a barrel. I look forward to reaching an agreement soon.
I got no response from Barber.
On August 15th, 2009, I upped the ante, sending Barber email offering 2 to 1 odds.
Still no response.
Instead, in November of 2009 The Univeristy of Manitoba published this video of Barber…
Current Ice Status
Anybody who is paying attention knows that Barber has been wildly off the mark for the Arctic, and that the sea ice extent in the Antarctic is pushing record highs. Globally, the sea ice area has been above its historical average during most of the last year.
10 to 1 odds
Today I am offering Barber 10 to 1 odds. That’s right, I will put up $10,000 to his $1000 that the ice covering the Arctic Basin will not be gone anytime before December 31st, 2015, all the rest of the terms being the same. Today I sent Prof. Barber this email, to the address found here. I am looking forward to hearing from him soon.
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The U of M should be made to justify why this man should still be on the payroll.
I’d bet he doesn’t take the bet, but I’d need better than 10:1 odds since it’s pretty much guaranteed you wont’ hear from him. In my world your projections had happen and be pretty much on target. Climate science seems to be much easier, no accountability, ever, for anything.
Hmmm, I’m going to stick my neck out and say that by 2050 we’ll see at least 1 September with zero arctic sea ice. My eyeball of NOAA’s linear fit of data suggests 2070 or so for the average, but I think annual variation will go my way.
Besides we have a decent chance of surviving to the age of 90 or so… Drop me a line, I’m still in DeKalb County.
Hi Robert,
It is good to hear from you! I hope all is well in DeKalb. Are you still affiliated with NIU?
About Arctic sea ice: I suspect that “regression to the mean” is going to be a great disappointment for for Prof. Barber, even out to 2050.
Besides, as far as I can tell, it was warmer in the Arctic in the mid-Holocene (say about 5000 years ago) than it is now. See…
https://climatesanity.wordpress.com/2008/10/15/dont-panic-the-arctic-has-survived-warmer-temperatures-in-the-past/
Tom