Gordian Knot of Nonsense – ”Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia,” Kemp, et. al.

Andrew C. Kemp, Benjamin P. Horton, Jeffrey P. Donnelly, Michael E. Mann, Martin Vermeer, and Stefan Rahmstorf have created a new generation of sea level vs temperature model.  This model evolved directly from Rahmstorf’s 2007 “A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise” and Vermeer’s and Rahmstorf’s “Global sea level linked to global temperature.”

This series of posts will examine various aspects of this paper and model. 

For simplicity, the paper and model will be referred to as KMVR2011.  This notation is chosen because Kemp (K) is the principal author, Mann (M) is very prominent in the anthropogenic global warming debate, and Vermeer (V) and Rahmstorf (R) have been big players in the KMVR2011 ancestor models.


Part 1.  Basic model equations and “genealogy.”

Part 2.  Simple temperature scenario that causes KMVR2011 model to behave in a suspicious manner.

Part 3.  A little bit of math (OK, a lot of math) that elaborates on the simple temperature scenario from part 2.

Part 4.  A bit of housekeeping before proceding to the more interesting stuff.  Deriving the “equilibrium temperature” the results from KMVR2011 when simple hypothetical temperature scenarios from 1960 to 2000 are used.

Part 5.  The resulting sea level rise when parts 3 & 4 are implemented.  Just like VR2009, realistic temperature scenarios can yield unrealistic  sea level rise rates.

Part 6.  The application of Bayesian analysis applied to the KMVR2011 model is irrelevant because the starting model is bogus anyway.

More parts to be added as they are written.  I tend to enjoy a slow pace, so check this index on occasion for additional parts, or go to my main page.  This series of posts will likely be interspersed with other topics.  Enjoy.

One comment

  1. […] see this index of my posts concerning KMVR2011.  Check back occasionally because the list of posts is slowly […]

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