Posts Tagged ‘AMSR-E’

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2 to 1 odds for Prof. David Barber

August 22, 2009

We are well into summer and the Arctic ice extent and area are taking their annual plunge.  How deep will the plunge be?  David Barber of the University of Manitoba thinks it will be very large.  Just a year ago he predicted that the the North Pole would be ice free in the summer of 2008.  National Geographic reported:

“We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker.

It turned out that he was wrong. 

The 2008 summer minimum turned out to have more ice than 2007’s minimum. But he has a fallback predicton: that the Arctic Basin will be ice free, at least part of the summer, by 2015.  This is a much more profound prediction.  The North Pole is just  a dot on the map, but the Arctic Basin is 4 million square kilometers surrounding the North Pole. 

Last December I challenged Barber on this blog to wager over his 2015 prediction.  He has not taken me up on the offer.  Now I have doubled the odds for him.  One week ago (8/15/09) I sent him the following email:

Dear Prof. Barber,

I took great interest in your widely reported prediction that the Arctic Basin would see its first ice free summer in 2015. Last December I wrote a blog post in which I challenged you to a wager. That post can be seen here:

 https://climatesanity.wordpress.com/2008/12/10/arctic-sea-ice-gone-by-2015-a-challenge-to-david-barber/

 This post has been viewed thousands of times on both my website and on the sites of others who have re-posted it.

 In that post I said:

“I propose a friendly wager based on this prediction. I will bet David Barber $1000(US) that the ice covering the Arctic Basin will not be gone anytime before December 31st, 2015. The bet would involve no transfer of cash between myself or Barber, but rather, the loser will pay the sum to a charitable organization designated by the winner.

Definition of terms. The Arctic Basin is defined by the regional map at Cryosphere Today. “Gone” means the Arctic Basin sea ice area is less that 100,000 square kilometers, according to National Center for Environmental Prediction/NOAA as presented at Cryosphere Today . Charitable organizations will be agreed upon at the time the bet is initiated.

David Barber is a smart guy and evidently an expert in his field. Taking on a wager with an amateur like me should be like shooting fish in a barrel. I look forward to reaching an agreement soon.”

Perhaps you did not see that challenge online – but many other people did. I am now willing to give you two to one odds on the same wager. Are you interested?

Best Regards,
Tom Moriarty

That’s right.   I will put $2000 dollars against Professor Barber’s $1000.   It should be difficult for him to turn this down.  He can put that $2000 dollars to any good cause that he desires.  If this sum is too small, perhaps we can nogotiate something larger.  He knows how to find me.  But I haven’t had a response yet.

One more point: The Arctic Basin is about 4 million square kilometers that roughly surround the North Pole.  If the Arctic Basin were ice free, then it would be a pretty good bet that all the arctic regions south of the Arctic Basin would also be ice free.  So Barber’s bet that the Arctic Basin will be ice free at some point by 2015 is effectively like saying the entire Arctic will be ice free.    Look at the AMSR-E plots of Arctic sea ice extent below.  Anybody interested in taking my wager?

AMSR-E sea ice extent 090822

Sea Ice extent for the Entire Arctic. If the Arctic Basin becomes ice free, then it is a good bet that the entire Arctic will also be ice free.

Sea Ice extent for the Entire Arctic. Ths is a detail from the graph above. If the Arctic Basin becomes ice free, then it is a good bet that the entire Arctic will also be ice free.

Sea Ice extent for the Entire Arctic. Ths is a detail from the graph above. If the Arctic Basin becomes ice free, then it is a good bet that the entire Arctic will also be ice free.

Why am I making this bet?   Because I am concerned about climate exaggerations and the effect they have on public policy makers. It seems quite clear that David Barber was off the mark when he predicted for 2008 “this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time,” because neither the Arctic Ocean, the Arctic Basin nor the North Pole were ice free in the summer of 2008.  Same with the summer of 2009, so far.  And the Arctic Basin will not be ice free by 2015 either. 

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Shame on you, Discover Magazine

January 15, 2009

 k;ask  ;fsa;dfk ; f;as; k

From left to right: Michael Abrams, author of the Discover Magazine interview; Robert Proctor, Agnotologist who is evidently trying to implement his own "politics of ignorance'" campaign; Corey Powell, Executive Editor of Discover Magazine, who doubtless approved of the smear. Ok, I admit I photoshopped the cigarettes. It's just a "fair use" joke - leave your lawyers at home.

 

Discover magazine’s January “The Year In Science” issue contains an interview with Robert Proctor, a professor or history at Stanford University.  The Author is Michael Abrams.  Proctor’s new specialty is “agnotology,” a term he coined for “the study of the politics of ignorance.”   This is all well and fine – he has a lot of raw material to work with since there is an abundance of ignorance to be studied in this world. 

In a previous incarnation Professor Proctor gained fame as the first historian to testify against the tobacco industry.   As a student of the history of science, Proctor should know something about the relationship between philosophy, logic and science.  He should know something about the logical fallacy commonly known as “hasty generalization.”  But he engages in an egregious example of  this when he says:

“…in terms of sowing doubt, certainly global warming in a famous one.  You know, the global warming denialists who for years have managed to say ‘Well, the cause is not proven.  We need more research.’  And what’s interesting is that a lot of the people working on that were also the people working on Big Tobacco.”

Perhaps on his next foray to the library to engage in historical research Professor Proctor can check out the resumes of the “tobacco scientists” in the following quickly compiled list.    You may do your own Internet search on these folks.  In many cases you will find their good names smeared, their accomplishments overlooked, and their associations scrutinized with pathetically cynical eyes.  I contend that their demonization is the real “politics of ignorance.”  But I won’t hold my breath waiting for some scholarly “agnotology” paper by Robert Proctor explaining how this smear process works.  These scientists, who are just the tip of the iceberg, disagree with some or all of the main tenants of the global warming gospel. 

 

 
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I’m curious about Canadian Archipelago sea ice area

October 16, 2008

What is happening with the Canadian Archipelago sea ice area?  Like all Arctic regions, the sea ice area of the Canadian Archipelago expands in the winter and shrinks in the summer.  Many people have come believe that the average yearly behavior of the ice from 1979 to 2000 represents what is “normal.  The only special thing about these years is that they are the first 20 years over which satellite data on sea ice area was accumulated.

For the last several years the Canadian Archipelago sea ice area, and the Arctic sea ice area in general, have dropped below the “normal” at least for part of the year.  The headline grabbing stories have been about “first time” openings in the “Northwest passage” through the Canadian Archipelago.  There seems to be a lot of interest, concern and talk.

I have turned to Cryosphere Today, from the Polar Research Group at the University of Illinois, and The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on the Earth Observing System Aqua satellite (AMSR-E) for my information.  The odd thing is that while Cryosphere Today’s 365 day plot of the Canadian Archipelago’s sea ice area (figure 1, below) indictes that the sea ice area is LESS today than it was one year ago, Cryosphere Today’s own graphics of arctic sea Ice area for 10/14/07 and 10/14/08 clearly show that the sea ice area in the Canadian Archipelago is GREATER now than it was a year ago.  The AMSR-E graphics show the same thing, as displayed in figures 2 and 3, below

Figure 1. CryoSphere Today's plot 365 days of Canadian Archipelago Sea Ice Area from 10/14/08.  Note that this plot shows the sea ice area about 25% greater one year ago.

Figure 1. Cryosphere Today's plot of 365 days of Canadian Archipelago Sea Ice Area from 10/14/08. Note that this plot shows the sea ice area about 25% greater one year ago.

 

AMSR-E data for 10/14/08.

figure 2. Sea ice area representations. Upper Left: Cryosphere Today for 10/14/07. Upper Right: Cryosphere Today for 10/14/08. Bottom Left: AMSR-E data for 10/14/07. Bottom Right: AMSR-E data for 10/14/08.

 

Figure 3.  Same as figure 2, except showing close-ups of Canadian Archipelag0.

Figure 3. Same as figure 2, except showing close-ups of Canadian Archipelago. Note that 2007 data is on the left, and the 2008 data is on the right. These graphics clearly show more ice in the Canadian Archipelago now (on the right) than there was one year ago (on the left).

 What gives?  Am I seeing this right? The ice distribution graphics from both Cryosphere Today and from AMSR-E instrument aboard the Aqua satellite both show GREATER sea ice cover now (10/14/08) than one year ago (10/14/07).  I am just trying to understand this discrepancy.  If anyone has an explanation, please comment below.

By the way, trips through the Northwest passage have been made long before now.  The wooden ship, St. Roch, made it twice in the 1940s.  Roald Amundsen did it even earlier aboard the Gjoa in 1905.  Of course, we do not have satellite data to show us the sea ice in the Northwest passage prior to 1979.  Who knows what could have been done with modern equipment thousands of years ago when the Arctic was warmer than today?