Posts Tagged ‘hockey stick’

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Climate Hockey Stick Confirmed!!

June 29, 2014

The Climate deniers are taking it on the chin again today as another independent source confirms the climate hockey stick that was first revealed by Michael Mann.  It is getting harder and harder for those corporate sponsored capitalist luddites to hide the truth about runaway effects of increasing atmospheric CO2.

See for yourself…

graph 140629_2

 

This satellite data comes to us via an unimpeachable source: The University of Illinois Department of Atmospheric Sciences. What could be clearer than the rapidly rising temperature seen in the blade of the hockey stick on the right side of the graph? Based on this data, it is high time that the deniers are rounded up and punished (executed?) for their greed inspired destruction of the planet.

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Michael Mann’s delusional fever

November 29, 2013
Michael Mann's fevered dream

Michael Mann’s fevered dream

Ever read the New York Times?  Wadda ya think, does it veer persistantly to the left?  Is the Pope Catholic?

Well, Michael Mann has been huffing and puffing at the Huffington Post that the New York Times has strayed from his approved dogmatism concerning global warming.  They dared to run an opinion piece by Richard Muller.

Richard Muller lives happily on the alarmist side of the road, but on occasion he lets his toes cross the dividing line, so that he can claim some credit for being open-minded.

In a recent op-ed he must have touched one of Mann’s extremely frayed nerves when he said…

“I worried that the famous “hockey stick” graph plotted by three American climatologists in the late 1990s portrayed the global warming curve with too much certainty and inappropriate simplicity.”

Ouch.  This was simply Muller’s demure way of stating the obvious. Of course, the main “American climatologist” who made this graph of “inappropriate simplicity” is none other than Michael Mann.  Muller’s soft punch of a statement seems to have left a big bruise on Mann’s sensitive ego.

Mann thinks The New York Times never should have let Muller engage in this attack on his crowning achievement.  But then the Times went even further and let the apostate spread even more heresy in a second op-ed about tornadoes.  Muller wrote

Despite the recent spate of deadly twisters, including those that tore through the Midwest over the weekend, the scientific evidence shows that strong to violent tornadoes have actually been decreasing for the past 58 years, and it is possible that the explanation lies with global warming…

I am not talking about global warming per se, which I am convinced is real and caused by man-made emissions of greenhouse gases. But not everything attributed to global warming has a scientific basis…

So let’s consider only the most violent tornadoes, the ones in categories EF3 to EF5…

NOAA… shows that the number of these storms has been significantly decreasing over the past 58 years, from over 50 per year in the first half to under 40 per year in the second. The statistical significance of this decrease is extremely high: well above 99 percent confidence.

How dare Muller display such an attitude!

Mann is especially incensed that Muller quoted from an earlier HuffPost article which said…

Michael Mann, a climatologist who directs the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University, agreed that it’s too early to tell.  “If one factor is likely to be favorable and the other is a wild card, it’s still more likely that the product of the two factors will be favorable,” said Mann. “Thus, if you’re a betting person — or the insurance or reinsurance industry, for that matter — you’d probably go with a prediction of greater frequency and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate change.”

But Muller wrote

Michael E. Mann, a prominent climatologist, was only slightly more cautious. He said, “If you’re a betting person — or the insurance or reinsurance industry, for that matter — you’d probably go with a prediction of greater frequency and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate change.”

Mann called this innocent contraction “sleight of hand.”  Touchy, touchy.

Mann uses his mighty reasoning powers to discern a conspiracy.  You can’t be too careful when even your friends are out to get you.  He warns us that this is ultimately the work of the Koch brothers, just like every other vile conspiracy against the goodness and light of global warming alarmism and the left in general.  (It used to be Dick Cheney and Halliburton, but I guess they must have passed the world control levers over to the Koch brothers.)  You see, Richard Muller now controls the New York Times, and the Koch brothers control Richard Muller.

Mann wraps his tin foil a little tighter and lectures…

The New York Times does a disservice to its readers when it buys into the contrived narrative of the “honest broker”–Muller as the self-styled white knight who must ride in to rescue scientific truth from a corrupt and misguided community of scientists. Especially when that white knight is in fact sitting atop a Trojan Horse–a vehicle for the delivery of disinformation, denial, and systematic downplaying of what might very well be the greatest threat we have yet faced as a civilization, the threat of human-caused climate change.

Shame on you New York Times. You owe us better than this.

You can get the full temperature of Mann’s paranoid delusional fever at his Huffington Post’s article, Something Is Rotten at the New York Times.

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Amazing multiplying hockey stick proxies

February 3, 2010

In my previous post I wrote about the five super-simple steps for building a hockey stick:   

Step 1. Gather time series.
Step 2. Select those time series that fit the instrumental (measured) temperature record of choice. Assume that since these time series match the measured temperature in some way, then they are, in fact, temperature proxies.
Step 3. Combine the chosen proxies in some fashion and note, not surprisingly, that the combined proxies match the temperature record. (duh) Call this your temperature reconstruction.
Step 4. Call this thing made from the combined proxies your temperature reconstruction, and therefore assume that the combined proxies are also a match for the temperature that occurred prior to the temperature measurement records.
Step 5. Note that the reconstruction shows that the temperature prior to the instrumental data is relatively flat, and conclude that the temperature prior to the instrumental record changed very little.   

This post is about a little subplot in gathering of time series for the Michael Mann’s 2008 version of the hockey stick (Proxy based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millenia, PNAS, 2008)   

Mann used 1209 proxies for this reconstruction.  He explains the breakdown as follows…   

We made use of a multiple proxy (‘‘multiproxy’’) database consisting of a diverse (1,209) set of annually(1,158) and decadally (51) resolved proxy series … including tree-ring, marine sediment, speleothem, lacustrine, ice core, coral, and historical documentary series. All 1,209 series were available back to at least A.D. 1800, 460 extend back to A.D. 1600, 177 back to A.D. 1400, 59 back to A.D. 1000, 36 back to A.D. 500, and 25 back to year ‘‘0’’ (i.e., 1 B.C.).   

Figure 1. Northern Hemisphere proxies in alphabetical order

 

Mann split his analysis between the Northern and Southern hemispheres.  I am going to talk about the 1,036 of the 1,209 proxies that applied to the North.  The following two images show the plots of the these 1,036 proxies, just click on them to enlarge.  The file sizes are less than a megabyte each and should open quickly in your browser.  Figure 1 is the plots arranged in alphabetical order.  If you scroll through this image you will see a lot of proxies that don’t look much like a hockey stick, and a few scattered here and there that do.  However, there is a series of 71 proxies named lutannt1 through lutannt71 that look very much like hockey sticks.    

These lutannt# proxies are from Pauling A Luterbacher, the researcher who “provided” them.  More on this important point later   

Figure 2. All Northern Hemisphere proxies in order of correlation with Northern Hemisphere instrumental temperature record.

 

As explained in the five easy steps for hockey stick construction, the proxies that look much like a hockey stick are likely to be weighted heavily in the final hockey stick construction.  If all the 1,036 proxies are correlated (For the math inclined: see correlation formula below) with the northern hemisphere instrumental temperature record, and the plots laid out from the worst correlation to the best, it will look like figure 2.  Scroll through this figure from top to bottom.  You will see the worst correlations at the top and the best on the bottom.  Note that the Luterbacher proxies are among the best correlated, and show up near the bottom.   

Figure 3. All Northern Hemisphere proxies, except Luterbacher proxies, in order of correlation with Northern Hemisphere instrumental temperature record.

 

Figure 3 is the same as figure 2, but with the Luterbacher proxies removed.  Scroll through, and it is quite clear that there are far fewer hockey stick-like proxies now.   

The Amazing Multiplying Proxies

Remember, the point of a hockey stick is not that it goes up in the 20th century – this is a given because the hockey stick is deliberately constructed from proxies that go up in the 20th century.  The real point is that it is more or less flat prior to the 20th century. (See step 5 of the super-simple steps for building a hockey stick.)  The 71 Luterbacher time series are tailor-made for this purpose, because they tend to show temperature rising in the 20th century but flat prior to that.  The problem with the 71 Luterbacher proxies is that they are actually not 71 separate proxies at all.    

Luterbacher, et.al., (European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since 1500, Science, 2004) used about 150 “predictors” spread out over Europe to reconstruct European surface temperature fields.  These predictors consisted of “instrumental temperature and pressure data and documentary proxy evidence.”    Figure 4, taken from Luterbacher’s  supplemental material, shows the geographical distribution of these predictors.   

Figure 4. Luterbacher's original caption: (A) station pressure locations (red triangles) and surface temperature sites (B, red circles) used to reconstruct the monthly European temperature fields (25°W-40°E; 35°N-70°N given by the rectangular blue box). Blue circles indicate documentary monthly-resolved data, blue dots represent documentary information with seasonal resolution back to 1500. Green dots stand for seasonally resolved temperature proxy reconstructions from tree-ring and ice core evidence.

 

 Lutenbacher used combinations of the predictors to interpolate the data to…   

“a new gridded (0.5° x 0.5° resolution) reconstruction of monthly (back to 1659) and seasonal (from 1500 to 1658) temperature fields for European land areas (25°W to 40°E and 35°N to 70°N).”    

Each of these grid points in the reconstruction is like one of the lutannt# graphs that show up in the list of proxies for Mann’s 2008 version of the hockey stick.  Mann ends up with 71 lutannt# “proxies” by simply taking 71 points using 5° x 5° resolution from Luterbacher’s temperature field reconstruction.   

Here’s  the rub: Not all the predictors used to make Luterbacher’s temprature field reconstruction go all the way back to 1500.  In fact, prior to about 1760 only about 10 of the total 150 predictors are used, and these predictors are primarily “documentary information.”  Prior to about 1660, only about 7 are used.   Figure 5, which also comes from Luterbacher’s supplementary material, shows the number of predictors used for each year to reconstruct his surface temperature fields.   

Figure 5. Luterbacher's original caption: Number of predictors through time.

 

Figure 6 shows the location of Mann’s 71 selected “proxies” and the location of the “documentary information” sources.  Not the best match in the world, is it?  Amazingly, the construction of some of the proxies prior to 1750 is based on data from sources over 1000 kilometers away!  

Figure 6. Blue dot show the location of Mann lutannt# "proxies." Red dots show the location of Luterbachers early "documentary information" sources.

 

 The important point is that all the data for Mann’s 71 lutannt# “proxies” prior to about 1760 is made up of some combination of the same 10 or so “documentary information” predictors.  This short list of predictors are the “Amazing Multiplying Hockey Stick Proxies.”  These 10 predictors are multiplied into 71 proxies, and these proxies all rank high for correlation to the instrumental temperature record from 1850 to the present.  Consequently, these 71 “proxies” likely weigh heavily in Mann’s 2008 hockey stick, and these 10 “documentary information” predictors, sometimes folded into “proxies” over a thousand kilometers away, have an undeserved multiplied effect in making the flat part of the hockey stick prior to the instrumental temperature record. 

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correlation coefficient: 

 

where P is the proxy, and Pi is the ith year of the proxy
T is the temperature, and Ti is the ith year of the temperature