Posts Tagged ‘PSMSL’

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Cities Underwater: Miami

July 2, 2013

Perhaps the dolts at Rolling Stone should stick to photos of aging rock stars, because they just embarrass themselves when they stray into science and reason.  Their boneheaded article by Jeff Goodell, “Goodbye, Miami” starts out by looking back from some fictitious hurricane in 2030.  This fantasy breathlessly tells us…

“When the water receded after Hurricane Milo of 2030… A dead manatee floated in the pool where Elvis had once swum. Most of the damage occurred not from the hurricane’s 175-mph winds, but from the 24-foot storm surge that overwhelmed the low-lying city.”

Well, at least they snuck in something about a dead rock-n-roller.  They continue…

The storm knocked out the wastewater-treatment plant on Virginia Key, forcing the city to dump hundreds of millions of gallons of raw sewage into Biscayne Bay. Tampons and condoms littered the beaches, and the stench of human excrement stoked fears of cholera. More than 800 people died, many of them swept away by the surging waters that submerged much of Miami Beach and Fort Lauderdale.

Wait!  Don’t the folks at Rolling Stone think “condoms littering the beaches” are a good thing?  I’m confused.

After another paragraph of blather they really get to the point…

But Hurricane Milo was unexpectedly devastating. Because sea-level­ rise had already pushed the water table so high, it took weeks for the storm waters to recede…And still, the waters kept rising, nearly a foot each decade. By the latter end of the 21st century, Miami became something else entirely: a popular snorkeling spot where people could swim with sharks and sea turtles and explore the wreckage of a great American city.

Well now, Mr. Goodell, I can’t decide if you are dishonest or just plain stupid. Anybody who is going to put his fingers to the keyboard to write an article about sea level rise at a particular coastal city would surely look up the sea level data for the region before indulging in such preposterous fantasies.

I’ll help him out.  Here is a list of sea level tide gauge sites in Florida with long and up-to-date records.  Click on any of then to see the sea level plots from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level.

Fernandina Beach, Florida: 100 years of data, 2.02 mm/year  (0.8 inches/decade)

Mayport, Florida: 80 years of data, 2.40 mm/year (0.9 inches/decade)

Key West , Florida: 100 years of data, 2.24 mm/year (0.9 inches/decade)

Naples, Florida: 40 years of data, 2.02  mm/year  (0.8 inches/decade)

Fort Myers, Florida:  40 years of data, 2.40 mm/year (0.9 inches/decade)

St. Petersburg, Florida: 60 years of data, 2.36 mm/year (0.9 inches/decade)

Clearwater Beach, Florida: 40 years of data, 2.43 mm/year (1.0 inches/decade)

Cedar Key, Florida: 100 years of data, 1.80 mm/year (0.7 inches/decade)

Apalachicola, Florida:  40 years of data,  1.38 mm/year (0.5 inches/decade)

Panama City, Florida: 40 years of data, 0.75 mm/year (0.3 inches/decade)

Pensacola, Florida: 90 years of data,  2.1 mm/year (0.8 inches/decade)

Look at those numbers.  They don’t exactly look like “nearly a foot each decade,” do they?

OK, Mr. Goodnell, stick with me here – we’re going to do some 5th grade math.  Look at the data above and make an estimate of how much the sea level will rise along the Florida coast by 2030.  How about we go with 2 inches (although that is certainly too high).

Now suppose your fictitious hurricane does bring a “24-foot storm surge.” Oh no!!! with the additional sea level rise that storm surge will be 2 inches higher!!!

 

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The Search for Acceleration, part 3: Japan

June 26, 2013

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CORRECTION: 6/30/13

The original detrended sea level rise rate graphs for this post was off by a factor of 12!.  This greatly changes my conclusion.  Incorrect information is now crossed out and is followed by corrected information in red.

Tide gauge data for the 20th century indicates that the average sea level rise rate was 1.8 mm/year.  Satellite data from 1993 to present indicates a sea level rise rate of about 3 mm/year.  This is part 3 of a series of posts looking for the acceleration necessary to reconcile those two facts

I am working under the theory that by detrending sea level data from individual (local) sites and averaging with other regional sites it should be possible to extract changes in regional rise rates while bypassing the question of what the “true” rise rate is for that region.

Japan

Conclusion: There is no convincing sign of a late century acceleration in the sea level rise rate in the tide gauge data from the Japan.

Conclusion:  The rise rate during much of  the satellite era has been much higher than the average for part of the 20th century for which data is available.

I looked for tide gauge data along the coast of Japan such that it covered at least the period from 1955 to 2008 with 90% of all monthly data accounted for. The following image shows the seven sites that met this criteria.  The circles show a weighting threshold of 300 km.

Seven sites used in this analysis.  Circles show 300 km weighting threshold

Seven sites used in this analysis. Circles show 300 km weighting threshold

The following plot shows the qualifying data spread out for easy comparison. The key at the right shows the RLR data filenames.

Japan Raw Spread

Sea level data for all seven sites.

Data reduction and detrending

The following animation shows the transition through raw data, removal of the yearly signals, detrending, Gaussian smoothing and conversion to derivative (rise rate).

Japan 90p 1955-2008 450ani corrected

Here are the removed yearly signals and the weighting.

Yearly signals removed from Japanese RLR data

Yearly signals removed from Japanese RLR data

Number of files and effective weighting based on 300 km threshold.

Number of files and effective weighting based on 300 km threshold.

Lets take a closer look at the detrended rise rate data and look for an acceleration in the satellite data era…

corrected rise rate Detrended Acceleration annotated Japan 90p 1955-2008 Detrended Acceleration annotated

corrected rise rate Detrended Acceleration annotated

The very weak argument could be made that there was a rapid acceleration around 1985, but the resulting sea level rise rate was only about 0.25 mm/year higher than the average for the last half of the century. There was also an even greater acceleration around 1965, and sea level rise rate around 1970 was as high or higher than than in the 1990s.  Finally, the 0.25 mm/year increase in the rise rate is only about 20% of the difference between the average global tide gauge rise rate for the 20th century (1.8 mm/year) and the satellite data (1993 to present) rise rate (about 3 mm/year).

So, I conclude that the Japanese data does not reconcile the difference between the 20th century tide gauge data and the satellite data.

The tide gauge data covering the part of the satellite data era (1993 to present) clearly shows a rise rate that is far greater than the average rise rate for the entire time period covered by the tide gauges.  The period from 1993 to about 2003 may have a rise rate around 3 mm/year greater than the average, but after that the rise rate seems to fall again.  Note that form about 1965 to 1975 the rise rate was also very high.  This data from Japan does reconcile the difference between the satellite data and the average tide gauge data.

Fukushima

The following graphs show the sea level data from the Soma tide gauge station in Japan with the seven station shown above.  Soma is the tide gauge station closest to the Fukushima nuclear reactors.  The images speak for themselves.

Japan with Soma Raw Spread

Fukushima map

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Sources

20th century rise rate average of 1.8 mm/year

1. Church and White Global Mean Sea Level Reconstruction

2. Links to Church and White sea level data

Satellite data (about 3 mm/year)

CU Sea Level Research Group

RLR tide gauge data

Permanent Service For Mean Sea Level

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The Search for Acceleration, part 2: East Coast of North America

June 24, 2013

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CORRECTION: 6/30/13

The original detrended sea level rise rate graphs for this post was off by a factor of 12!.  This greatly changes my conclusion.  Incorrect information is now crossed out and is followed by corrected information in red.

This is part 2 of a series of posts in which I am searching for a large acceleration in sea level rise rate in the latter part of the 20th century that could reconcile the 1.8 mm per year average rise rate for the century attributed to tide gauge data and the approximately 3 mm per year rise rate for the tail end of the century attributed to the satellite data.

The global sea level rise rate is swamped by other effects.  In most locations the yearly rise and fall of the oceans is greater than the 18 cm of sea level rise during the entire 20th century.  Geologic effects (e.g. glacial isostatic adjustment or plate tectonics) add to local and regional rise rates, making them deviate greatly from the global rise rate.

I am working under the theory that by detrending sea level data from individual (local) sites and averaging with other regional sites it should be possible to extract changes in regional sea level rise rates while bypassing the question of what the “true” sea level rise rate is in that region.

East Coast of North America

Conclusion: There is no sign of an acceleration in the sea level rise rate in the tide gauge data from the East Coast of North America.

Conclusion:  The tide gauge data for the East Coast of North America that covers that satellite sea level data era (1993 to present) does show a rise rate that is significantly higher than the tide gauge data rise rate for the 20th century.  But the sea level rise rate in the 1930s through 1940s and around 1970 was as high or higher.Whether or not this data reconciles the difference between the 20th century tide gauge rise rate average and the satellite rise rate average is still ambiguous.

I have selected the East Coast of North America, for no particular reason, as the first region to analyse.  I looked for tide gauge data along the coast such that it covered at least the period from 1960 to 2008 with 90% of all monthly data accounted for.  Usable sites ranged from Nova Scotia to Georgia.

Click on any animations or graphs to enlarge.
East Coast North America 90p 1960-2008 Map

The following plot shows the qualifying data spread out for easy comparison.  The key at the right shows the associate RLR data files.

East Coast North America 90p 1960-2008 Raw Spread

Averaged data

As I mentioned above, I am not concerned with finding the sea level rise rate, but rather the change in sea level rise rate. However the following data for the East Coast of North America is interesting because it shows an averaged sea level rise rate for the 20th century that is close to the satellite derived sea rate for the end of the 20th century.  This is will not be the case for most regions around the world.  If you squint the right way you can also see the change in rise rate around 1930 that shows up in the various iterations of Church and White’s derivations of 20th century sea levels.

East Coast North America 90p 1960-2008 Avg 450ani2

Detrended data

East Coast North America 90p 1960-2008 450ani corrected

The last frame of the detrended data animation is worth repeating (see below).  Notice that there is no evidence of an extreme or consistent increase in the sea level rise rate in the last two decades.  The rise rates were as great or greater in the 1940s, 1950s and 1970s than they were in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.  However, at least part of the satellite era (1993 to present) tide gauge data may be more than 2 mm/year greater than the average for the 20th century.  It is safe to say that the tide gauge data from the East Coast of the North America does not reconcile the difference between the 20th century rise rate average (about 1.8 mm/year) and the satellite measured average (about 3 mm/year) Whether or not this data reconciles the difference between the 20th century tide gauge rise rate average and the satellite rise rate average is still ambiguous.

East Coast North America 90p 1960-2008 Detrended Acceleration
corrected East Coast North America 90p 1960-2008 Detrended Acceleration