Posts Tagged ‘Trenberth’

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Kevin Trenberth on “loudly proclaimed confindent statements”

January 15, 2011

Kevin Trenberth is discussing the ramifications of Climategate with the American Meteorological Society.  He had this to say about the anthropogenic global warming “deniers”…

“their false claims have not been scrutinized or criticized anything like enough…Debating them about the science is not an approach that is recommended. In a debate it is impossible to counter lies, and caveated statements show up poorly against loudly proclaimed confident statements that often have little or no basis”

Yes, I see his point.  It must be really tough to get the truth across to the public with the onslaught of denier lies.   That phalanx of well coordinated and lavishly financed deniers have grabbed all the attention, and the level-headed warnings coming from people like Trenberth are all but drowned out.  His perseverance against such odds is truly awe-inspiring.

Who makes the loudest proclimations?

Try these Google searches…

“global warming”  (past year) 103,000,000 hits
“climate change” (past year) : 295,000,000
climategate (past year): 1,870,000

Yup, the combination of “global warming” and “climate change” outpaced “climategate” by 200 to 1.   Do the search on “climate change” and then tell me how many of the hits support the party line and how many support the “deniers.” 

I’ll  help you out with this exercise.   Look the first page of hits – every hit supports the party line on AGW.  Same with the second page.  Same with the third. 

"Climate Change" search page 30

We can get a pretty good idea of the lay of the land by skipping down to the 30th page of hits.  (I have reproduced all the links below, any you can  see screen image by enlarging the image at the left).   I count one item that would fall into the “denier” camp (item #1 “Debating Climate Change with Anthropogenic Global Warming …”).  One or two might pass as neutral, all the rest follow the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) party line.

Now look at the paid ads above the search hits and on the right sidebar.  These links are also reproduced below.  All eleven of these paid ads follow the AGW party line.  Each add costs money and each one solicits for more money in one manner or another.  They represent well-funded, organized efforts to push the AGW view.

So who is really making all the  “loudly proclaimed confident statements?” 

What has the “warmers” so upset? 

They get the vast majority of the press and the accolades.  They have more money and are highly organized.  The “deniers” are mostly a ragtag group of lone individuals motivated by personal interest and receiving zero compensation.  They are usually denigrated as kooks or quacks.

The problem is that those some of those “deniers” have more ability and insight than they are given credit for.  Some of them make some pretty good points, uncover some pretty big inconsistencies and exaggerations, and ask some pretty tough questions.

Trenberth’s “future hurricane”

Speaking of “loudly proclaimed confident statements that often have little or no basis,” try this one on for size…

Trenberth’s future hurricane at same scale as Katrina (inset)

This is Trenberth’s less than caveated “future hurricane” from his 2007 Scientific American article.  The inset shows hurricane Katrina at the same scale as his “future hurricane.”   If  Trenberth is at all curious about why his message seems to be losing traction, maybe he ought to look in the mirror for the perpetrator of a “loudly proclaimed confident statement that [has] little or no basis.”

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30th page Google search results…

  1.  
    1. Debating Climate Change with Anthropogenic Global Warming

      Oct 18, 2010 – In another conference I was once again asking questions about AGW and why Believers seem so adamant when there are so many unanswered questions….
      mensnewsdaily.com/…/debating-climate-change-with-anthropogenic-global-warming-believers/
    2. NOAA Education – Primarily for Teachers ( Climate Change and Our

      Nov 30, 2010Climate Change and Our Planet. These items are designed for the teacher to use in CLIMATE CHANGE. PALEOCLIMATE. ICE AND THE ARCTIC. GLOBAL OBSERVATIONS
      http://www.education.noaa.gov/tclimate.htmlCachedSimilar
    3. NewsDaily: Scientists see climate change link to Australian floods

      2 days agoClimate change has likely intensified the monsoon rains that have triggered record floods in Australia’s Queensland state, scientists said on Wednesday,
      http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/tre70b1xf-us-climate-australia-floods/
    4. Climate Change in the Pacific Region

      Nov 3, 2010Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest, a website of the Pacific Region U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service.
      http://www.fws.gov/pacific/climatechange/Cached
    5. Climate Change : Weather Underground

      Dec 25, 2010 – Welcome to the Weather Underground’s new Climate Change page! But while it is good to objectively question the science of climate change,
      http://www.wunderground.com/climate/CachedSimilar
    6. CIWMB Climate Change Home Page

      Aug 13, 2010 – Describes the role the California Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery (CalRecycle) is fulfilling in implementing the Governor’s climate change
      http://www.calrecycle.ca.gov/climate/Cached
    7. Planet Change | Inspiring people to learn about climate change and

      6 hours ago – As our coastlines erode, we are also losing some of our great Massachusetts beach stories. But if we can adapt to climate change, we can save our beaches
      change.nature.org/Similar
    8. Climate change blamed as coastal whale migration dwindles

      Apr 13, 2010 – Michael Smith scanned the horizon, searching for the telltale sign that a whale and her youngster were near. With his powerful binoculars trained on the sea
      http://www.vcstar.com/news/…/climate-change-blamed-as-coastal-whale-migration/
    9. Nation & World | Conservative scientists take on climate change

      Jan 6, 2011 – In much the same role that marriage and abortion played in previous election cycles, denial of climate change has become a litmus test for the right.
      seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2013866921_climate07.html
    10. Climate Change: The Next Generation

      4 minutes ago – Education, politics and opinions about climate change evidence for Climate change, theory of planned behavior and values: a structural equation model
      climatechangepsychology.blogspot.com/Similar

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    3. Stossel & Climate Change

      Reporter Denies Climate Change Speaks at Conference

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Kevin Trenberth’s REAL travesty

November 24, 2009

There has been a lot of talk about Kevin Trenberth’s “travesty” email. 

Here is the REAL travesty:  Trenberth has selected and presented data in a way that makes the epithet “alarmist” an objective evaluation of his behavior.

The “Travesty” email

Kevin Trenberth was a lead author of the 1995, 2001, and 2007 IPCC Scientific Assessment of Climate Change.  So, he shares that Nobel Prize with Al Gore.  On his day job he is head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

One of the hacked Climate Research Unit (CRU) emails that is raising a few eyebrows is from October 12th of this year, from Kevin Trenberth to Micheal Mann (the original shamed author of the Hockey Stick).  Trenberth is talking about the cold weather the world has seen lately, and in particular, the cold weather being experienced where he and NCAR reside, in Boulder, Colorado.  He says it is a “travesty” that this “lack of warming at the moment” can’t be accounted for.

I live just down the road from Boulder, so I know what he is talking about.  It has been a cold, snowy, rough fall so far.

Here is Trenberth’s email to Mann…

From: Kevin Trenberth
To: Michael Mann <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider , Myles Allen , peter stott , “Philip D. Jones” , Benjamin Santer , Tom Wigley , Thomas R Karl , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen , Michael Oppenheimer

Hi all

Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather).

Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth’s global energy. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, 19-27, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [1][PDF] (A PDF of the published version can be obtained from the author.)

The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.

That said there is a LOT of nonsense about the PDO. People like CPC are tracking PDO on a monthly basis but it is highly correlated with ENSO. Most of what they are seeing is the change in ENSO not real PDO. It surely isn’t decadal. The PDO is already reversing with the switch to El Nino. The PDO index became positive in September for first time since Sept 2007.see[2]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_c urrent.ppt

Kevin

Climate vs. Weather

Most folks are missing the real point when it comes to Trenberth’s “travesty” email.  For a typical example, see this very short Glenn Beck video…

If you are an anthropogenic global warming skeptic, like I am, then it is dangerous to gloat over cold WEATHER, because it may be warm tomorrow.  I do not think unusually cold weather for a season, or even a year, provides a very good counter-argument to global warming alarmism.  It goes back to the old weather vs. climate thing.  I accept that the recent (say, the last year) cold weather could (almost) be chalked up to weather, not climate.

The REAL travesty

Trenberth's gigantic "future hurricane" next to the real Katrina. Both are on the same size scale.

The real travesty with Trenberth has been his long-term take on climate, not weather.  Trenberth has loudly trumpeted climate alarmism by preaching hurricane panic.  See his Scientific American article from 2007.  He predicted a trend toward gigantic hurricanes which was depicted by an illustration of a “future hurricane,” which is shown at the left (click to enlarge).

Prior to that, in 2005 he wrote about the importance the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index.  This is a measure of the amount of energy dissipated by cyclones over the entire planet, or some part of the planet.  In the June 17th, 2005 issue of Science he said…

An important measure of regional storm activity is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index…The ACE index reflects the collective intensity and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes during a given hurricane season.

At that time he used the ACE to bolster his argument that “Trends in human-influenced environmental changes are now evident in hurricane regions.”  This is what the satellite derived ACE looked like in 2005, about the time of Katrina…

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index to 2005.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index to 2005.

For some reason, he left the ACE data out of his 2007 Scientific American article.  Maybe because when he wrote his article in 2007 it looked something like this…

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index to 2007.

I wonder if he includes the ACE index in his presentations today when he talks about the dangers of future hurricanes.  The Accumulated Cyclone Energy index as derived from satellite data, for both the planet and the Northern Hemisphere are at historic lows.  And that’s climate, not weather…

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index to 2009.

The bottom line

Trenberth and the rest of the gang  are willing to sacrifice the tenets of scientific discourse and even common decency , and they are eager to evade the need for transparency, just to maintain their status as the scientific elite.  They have selected and presented data in a way that makes the epithet “alarmist” an objective evaluation of their behavior.